In the summer of 2024, the Indonesian President launched the new capital of the country, Nusantara. The country first moved the capital for climate -related reasons. In particular, the old capital, Jakarta, is sinking due to urbanization and pumping groundwater, and the impact (especially floods) as the sea surface rises. In France, the expenditure of 2023 and the subsequent destruction left the destruction of the Le Signal, the residence of Souluk Sir Ma, threatened by the boring coastline. The climate and its evolution encourage men and women to move around the earth. In 2023, more than 26 million internal displaces were recorded for natural disasters, especially floods and storms, according to a 2024 World Report on internal displacement.
What are the factors behind the transition? Is this list characteristic of the climate?
Catlin Mirock. There are many factors that determine the transition: Economic, social, political, population statistical, cultural. Weather conditions can affect these factors. For example, hurricanes can impact people and lead to a decline in income, which causes a transition.
Please tell us in detail how climate change is affecting the transition.
Climate change has a direct and indirect impact on movement. The most obvious direct effect is the destruction of property in extreme weather phenomena, which often leads to temporary displacement. Another direct effect is a decrease in agricultural productivity due to drought. In countries where most of the population depends on agriculture, this leads to a decrease in income, which leads to immigration. Finally, it is possible to avoid living in specific areas, such as the direct impact of climate change -an increase in circulation of vector broken disease.
One of the recorded indirect impact is the economy. It is observed that immigration people are not always directly affected. For example, the price of crops affected by drought may increase, and this price can move consumers.
Does climate change only affect the number of refugees, or is there any other impact on migration?
Climate change has several different effects on the movement. There is no single answer. It depends greatly on the local context. For example, we know that the composition of the moving flow will be affected in the future. Today we tend to see the movement of men of working age, but extreme climate events will lead to pain. In other words, when the whole family moves. Many studies also indicate that extreme events tend to be related to temporary movements in the same country in the same country. Conversely, slow phenomena, such as desertification, tend to create permanent migratory birds. India2 and AFRICA3 show that urbanization is induced by rising temperature, but only cities with transportation networks and employment opportunities for non -agricultural sectors. However, as the inter -climate change (IPCC) pointed out in the latest report 4, there are still many uncertainty about the effects of climate change in the flow of birds.
Why is this?
It is difficult to separate the effects of climate change from other movement factors. Climate change interacts with social factors. For example, research indicates that political systems depend on our environment and climate change for a long time. However, itself affects the migration process.
The second obstacle is methodology. To separate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to make sure that other factors remain constant. However, climate change is a long -term process, and in the meantime, other factors evolve. To overcome this difficulty, most research focuses on extreme weather phenomena, almost instant processes. However, these studies cannot completely evaluate the effects of climate change.
There is also data problem. In climate studies, the effects of climate change are thought to be visible over at least 30 years. However, socio -economic data often covers a shorter period. There is no reference data before the climate change. The oldest data on international transition dates back to 1960.
Do you have any idea about the future impact of climate change on the flow of birds?
As far as I know, only two studies provide robust results. In science, the two authors are evaluating the effects of the rise of temperature in the southern countries by using the asylum applications in the European Union 5. It is noted that between 2000 and 2014, when the temperature is about 20 ° C's optimal optimal, the optimal temperature of agriculture has increased the use of asylum. They estimate that claims may increase by 28 % by 2100 for average greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5). In 2022, in Journal of the European Economic Association 6, another team estimates the number of additional climate immigrants by the end of the century (according to the future greenhouse gas emission scenario). 。 Even if the projection is quantified, these results should be considered by magnitude, taking into account uncertainties.
Are certain areas and groups more vulnerable?
It depends greatly on how climate change appears. For example, small Pacific islands have been hit the biggest hitting sea level rise. Southeast Asia is mainly threatened by floods, but the population around the Mediterranean, West Africa, and Asia is affected by drought and extreme temperature. Migration related to agricultural productivity tends to affect South America, Central America and Africa. Finally, the population statistical factor is the major decision -making factor in the moving style, and in the future it is dominant in Africa.
I also know that it is the wealthy household that has the resources to migrate. The poorest households are trapped in a predetermined position, indicating that climate change will increase inequality, poverty, and mortality. It is important to take these immovable groups into account.
Interview with Anaïsmarechal
See the details:
Benonnier, T., K. Millock and V. Taraz. “Tendency of long -term movement and temperature rise: Roles of irrigation”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy 11 (3), 307-330, 2022. Becrera-valbuena, L. And K. Millock. “Moving gender to drought in Malawi”, Journal of Humangographic Economics 87 (3), 437-477, 2021. Cattaneo, C., M. Beine, C. Fröhlich, D. Kniveton, I. Martinez-Zarzoso, M. MASTRORILLO, K. Millock, e. Piguet, B. Schraven. “Migration of humans in the era of climate change”, environmental economic and policy review 13 (2), 189-206, 2019.
