Will China fill the vacuum as France rapidly loses influence in the Sahel region of West Africa and is an unpredictable US president?
The Sahel region covers 10 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal.
The French were exiled from three groups, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, after the military coup. Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast also expelled the French troops. The military was there due to security threats from extremist groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic West African state.
Niger has also concluded an agreement to maintain approximately 1,000 US troops involved in counterterrorism missions. The Niger military government explained that the United States has a “familiar attitude.”
It has been correctly argued that the existence of Western powers did not solve local security challenges, but their withdrawal creates a vacuum.
I am a political science and international relations researcher who has studied China-Africa relations for over a decade.
Beijing claims that the Sahel vacuum can be utilized in at least three ways. Expanding investment in important minerals. Resolution of the ECOWAS crisis (when Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali leave the regional bloc); Increase in arms sales.
This is especially true because China is not new to the Sahel region of West Africa. For example, China is building a US$32 million headquarters in ECOWAS in Abuja, Nigeria.
Three Ways China Can Profit
First, China is able to expand its impact and will retain great opportunities in this regard for the next four years.
President Donald Trump's transactional unpredictable approach to international relations could increase the likelihood of an unpredictable approach. For example, China may be needed to fill the void created by the US decision to dismantle USAID and freeze international development aid.
Nigeria joined BRICS as a partner country just days before Trump took office. BRICS is a group of emerging economies that has decided to act as a counterweight for the West and reduce the impact of global institutions. Founded in 2006, it was originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India and China. This decision by the Sahel's biggest economy is an expression of its commitment to China, and has a potential impact on other Sahel countries.
This vacuum provides Beijing with the opportunity to strengthen its investment and position as the highest beneficiary of key minerals such as gold, copper, lithium and uranium in the Sahel region.
In 2024, West Africa's gold production was estimated at 11.83 million ounces. Ghana, Burkina Faso, the Republic of Guinea and Mali were key contributors.
Second, China is in a unique position to seek a resolution to the ECOWAS crisis.
After the military coup, the economic bloc in the ECOWAS region approved Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Ecowas even threatened Niger with military invasions. The three countries then decided to leave ECOWAS and form an alliance in the Sahel province.
As a neutral actor with non-interference policies dealing with both civil and military regimes, Beijing will be in the position to take ECOWAS and the Sahel alliance into negotiations before its final departure date on July 29, 2025. there is.
If that succeeds, China will appear to be a peaceful force. It's an image that is contested by others.
Based on soft power projects like the Confucius Institute and Scholarship, China will look like the “savior” of Ecowas integration.
This is what we did in the case of the Tazara Railway Project, which China supported Tanzania and Zambia to build the railway line together. They supported African countries when the US and Europe failed, were either reluctant or uninterested.
The third is China's weapons sales.
The Chinese arm is already in the Sahel. In 2019, Nigeria signed a US$152 million contract with China North Industries Corporation Limited (Norinco) to provide some of the weapons needed to combat Boko Haram terrorist groups. I did. Since then, Chinese drones and other equipment have been a hallmark of Nigeria's counterterrorism response.
China's arms market could receive a major boost beyond Nigeria by withdrawing Western countries from the Sahel. Western countries are likely to be reluctant to sell arms to countries that have driven out of their troops.
Sanctions against Russia also increased the possibility of the Sahel Chinese weapons.
For example, months after France and the US left the region, some reports suggest that Russian mercens in the Sahel region are using Chinese weapons. Norinco – China's top Arms manufacturer and the world's seventh largest weapons supplier has opened sales offices in Nigeria and Senegal.
In June 2024, Burkina Faso received 100 tanks from China. Three months later, Mali signed an agreement with Norinko to strengthen his fight against terrorism.
A bumpy road ahead
China's non-interference can deal with both the Sahel civil and military governments. This is an advantage for Beijing in several ways. But it can also have unexpected effects.
Local interests are competing in the Sahel, and involvement in Beijing's deepening could be interpreted as supporting one.
This could potentially make China's interests a target for violence.
It is also unclear whether China can fill the vacuum created by the Western countries where it was driven out. But it looks as if China could benefit from the Sahel situation in the short term.
