The rising tensions in the Middle East have forced airlines to re-rout flights in key stress tests for the Gulf's ultra-efficient aviation hub.
Many international airports in the region rely on smooth transit connections that rely on minutes rather than hours. For example, Doha, home to Qatar Airways, has a minimum connection time of just 45 minutes between flights.
Earlier this year, Etihad Airlines reduced its transport threshold for non-US departures in Abu Dhabi from 60 to just 45 minutes. Connections at Dubai International Airport, the busiest in the world, can take up to an hour.
As airlines reroute aircraft to avoid conflict zones, what may appear to be minor detours can have a significant impact on tightly coordinated operations.
A proactive approach
Until the recent surge in violence, many local airlines relied on Iraq and Iranian airspace for services to Europe and North America. Some airlines have taken a proactive approach as they did not immediately break away from local conflicts.
On Sunday, Qatar Airways issued a travel alert advised passengers on schedule changes. The carrier said it is rescheduling “many flights” over the coming weeks.
As part of the changes, some departure times are moving forward. This means that flights will leave earlier than originally planned. This is especially problematic for travelers who already have a tight connection. Qatar Airways said changes were being made to “ensure connectivity and minimize disruption.”
The Gulf Coast hub-and-spoke aviation network relies on both accuracy and scale. Leading players from Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airlines collectively offer hundreds of inbound and outbound flights each day, focusing on carefully coordinated “banks.” These allow passengers in Asia, Africa, Europe and America to efficiently connect through the central hub with minimal fuss. However, this model only works if everything runs on time.
Operational Domino Effects
An increase in average flight time typical of current re-registration 20-30 minutes can have a significant operational impact. For passengers, this can mean missing connections, longer transport times and adding stress. All of this suppresses the competitive advantage that Gulf carriers offer fast, efficient and relatively troublesome connections.
Skift analysis of data from flightradar24 suggests this challenge. The average flight time for Qatar Airways from London Heathrow to Doha using Iraqi airspace was 6 hours 4 minutes. However, the average flight time for the revised route tracking south of Saudi Arabia and the Mediterranean is around 6 hours 40 minutes.
Etihad Airways has retreated flights to cities in the region, including Amman, Jordan and Beirut, Lebanon. We have also cancelled our service to Tel Aviv until July 15th. The travel advisory on its website states, “This remains a very dynamic situation and further changes or disruptions can occur in a short period of time, including sudden airspace closures and operational impacts.”
Citing the local situation, Emirates temporarily suspended all flights and all flights to Iraqi cities in Baghdad and Basra until June 30th. The airline says it operates as planned for all other destinations.
Speaking to Skift, John Strickland, an aviation consultant with important industry experience in network planning and revenue management, said, “Longer routing is generated, and therefore delayed with minimal flight times, which increases fuel burning and operating costs.”
“In their worst case, they consume extra aircraft and crew time. It could affect regulated working hours later, leading to the knock-on effect of ending up cancelling some flights,” Strickland said.
It's not just the Middle Eastern giants
The conflict is also affecting non-regional airlines. For example, American Airlines routes from Philadelphia to Doha faced cancellations on a recent day, with British Airways canceling flights to Dubai and Doha on Sunday and Monday.
A British Airways spokesperson told Skift that subsequent flights to Dubai and Doha will be run as normal, but the situation remains under review.
Matthew Borie, Chief Information Officer of Aviation Risk Intelligence Company Osprey Flight Solutions, said, “Airlines are cancelling flights to airports in the UAE and Qatar, and are concerned about drones, cruise missiles, and Iran and/or ballistic missile attacks, so if not to the extent of Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Iraqi Iran-backed extremist groups – targeting US military bases in these countries.”
Last year, Hamad International Airport in Doha handled 52.7 million passengers. Of these, 12 million people have begun or finished their journey in Qatar. With almost 80% of customers connecting and thousands of different routes in combination, it doesn't take long for the system to be under pressure. Even in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, even destinations with point-to-point traffic, about half of all passengers are in transit.
Airports and airlines in the region are familiar with the rapidly changing business environment. Nevertheless, this latest disruption highlights the structural vulnerability of hub-and-spoke systems that rely on geopolitical stability for geographical advantages.
The central position of the intercontinental Gulf is one of its biggest assets and is a potential responsibility in an era of regional volatility.
“Worst to date”: IATA Chief Warns About Global Airspace Challenges – Exclusive
Global airspace is under pressure like never before. IATA Chief Willie Walsh says the airline is adapting, but it requires all the information available to make the right call in an increasingly complex world.
The performance of stock indexes in the airline sector is year by year
What am I looking at? Performance of airline sector stocks within ST200. The index includes companies that are publicly traded in the global market, such as network carriers, low-cost carriers and other affiliates.
The Skift Travel 200 (ST200) combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel agencies, more than $1 trillion, into a single figure. See financial performance for other airline sectors.
Read the complete methodology behind Skift Travel 200.
Jetstream is ahead of the rapidly moving world of global aviation.
Get it in your inbox every Saturday.
By submitting this form you agree to receive email communications from Skift.
