While South Africa’s aviation sector has shown strong signs of recovery, its flagship airline, South Africa Airlines (SAA), has eroded its market share. SAA, once the largest airline in Africa, slid to 11th place with FlySafair and Airlink jumping to 2nd and 6th respectively.
According to OAG flight data presented in a recent webinar, overall airline capacity across Africa increased by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. All African regions except Central and West Africa saw growth. South Africa recorded a 9.6% increase in capacity from the previous year, while East Africa saw a 9% growth.
This growth was led by international routes, with capacity increasing by 3.5%, while domestic capacity fell by 3.6% across the continent.
Mixed Fate of SA
South Africa has grown in capacity by 10% over the past year, making it one of Africa’s top three fastest growing markets, after Egypt and Morocco. However, despite being the continent’s largest airline in 2015, SAA slipped to 11th place, with 69% of seats down from over 1 million in 2015 to 315 000 this year.
Ethiopian Airlines is currently at the top of the continent, showing growth of 131% between 2015 and 2025. Flysapphire came in second, jumping from 86,335 seats in 2015 to over a million seats in 2025.
However, eight of the top 20 carriers by continental seating capacity are not resident in Africa. Chief data analyst at OAG John Grant said these airlines are challenging for local airlines to compete with “very different businesses, sometimes political and strategic national interests, they are trying to support.”
Midas Aviation partner Deidre Fulton said 55% of the continent’s international capabilities are run by African Domisil airlines. Middle Eastern airlines are steadily expanding their footprint across Africa. Emirates is now the top ten airlines on the continent, with Qatar Airways and Saudia expanding 74% and 55% respectively over the past decade.
The transatlantic link between the US and Africa has also seen an increase in flights, which has increased 46% since 2019, with 12 new US-Africa routes being introduced this year.
Grant said: He believes that airlines will struggle to compete on European, Middle East and North American routes, leaving SAA limited options.
In response, Ogaga Udjo, MD of ZA Logic, said that SAA should focus on what’s best. The North American market will be tough, but he highlighted its importance to the SAA network given the regional foundation and bilateral agreements.
