Although cautionary European airline leaders have been keeping track of trends up until now, they have seen no negative impacts from US President Donald Trump's policies on the favorable transatlantic passenger market.
During the A4E Airlines Summit in Brussels on March 27, the chief executives of three large European airline groups agreed that advance bookings between Europe and the US are currently tracking expectations.
“A lot of us, like American competitors, don't see anything like we do today,” says Ben Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM.
Nevertheless, Smith described the situation as “concerns to us,” adding that the group continues to study development “very, very closely.”
That concern is partly due to increased risk factors in recent weeks and the real-world impact of the Trump administration's actions in some airline markets.
These risk factors include a decline in trust among US consumers in the world's largest economy. This has already impacted the domestic leisure market, particularly in the country, urging many US airlines to downgrade their first quarter revenue expectations.
And there are concerns that European travelers, for example, may choose to fly elsewhere and do business as the US administration incites trade wars and show hostility towards their major allies.
Trump's rhetoric and tariff impact on neighbouring Canada provides indications of what is coming. As of March, advance reservations between Canada and the US fell 70% per month until the end of September, according to OAG data.
Still, the CEO of British Airways and Iberia owner Louis Gallego agrees that the negative effects of the Trump administration's actions have been fed to the market so far. For example, he says that third quarter demand for the Atlantic is tracking “along with our forecasts.”
“And I don't think American airlines have an impact on transatlantic operations. They don't see the weakness in demand for leisure in transatlantic operations,” he adds.
Meanwhile, Lufthansa Group CEO Kirsten Spole suggests that the transatlantic market could transcend political tensions.
“How do you measure transatlantic relations?” he asks. “I think we measure that with people who are actually interacting with each other.”
Spohr notes that next summer there will be “more than ever passengers on the transatlantic ocean.”
“So, let's not misdirect from the obvious transatlantic lineage in terms of transatlantic relations, political conditions, defence language, and economically, visits, visits, visits, holidays on the other side of the Atlantic.”
That part of the relationship was “never healthy,” he argues.
