The United States, the United Nations and the African Union (AU) were among the first to welcome the July 19 ceasefire between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 rebel group defended by the US and Qatar.
According to the US State Department, the Doha Declaration was intended, based on the peace agreement Congo and Rwanda signed in Washington, and was built as another “meaning step towards furthering lasting peace and stability in the Great Lakes region.”
Although Kigali continues to deny support for the M23, Rwanda's willingness to sign and its passive observation Doha agreement was seen as an implicit acknowledgment of its role in the conflict over the years.
Is DRC a no-go zone?
A day after its signature in Doha, the US updated the DRC, particularly the capital's security advisory, advised the country's US citizens to “raising awareness, avoiding large gatherings, and monitoring local news and security updates.”
Read | A peace deal with Rwanda paves the way for a “new era,” says Dr. Congo
The list of recommended actions includes “sufficient food and water to stay home for a few days” and “essential items (clothes, drugs, travel documents) packed in a portable bag.
Volunteers register as members of the Swahili Wozalendo-Patriots and then perform physical exercises to fight alongside the group group to fight the M23 armed groups at Hunu Stadium in Bukabu.
This consultation is similar to the advice that we, the authorities, issue residents to prepare for major natural disasters.
Reagan Miviri, a conflict analyst and lawyer working with the Congo Research Group at Kinshasa, an independent, nonprofit research project, understands the importance of the US Department of State's latest travel recommendations.
“The crisis in the eastern Congo is visible in Kinshasa in some respects,” she told DW.
“The US actors (who) are worried about what will happen in Kinshasa… they probably know a lot more than we do, so they probably have other information we don't have.”
Many parts of the DRC still remain actively under M23 control, according to Lidewyde Berckmoes, an associate professor and senior researcher at Leiden, the Dutch Center for African Studies.
Miners gather during the M23 movement rally at the mines in Louvey.
“The area has seen many violent rebel movements that have been there since the 1990s. There is a lot of tension and there are many places where authority is being contested,” Berckmoes, which focuses on Africa's Great Lakes region, told DW.
The M23 extension course continues
On the ground, the reality of the war situation continues to effectively determine daily life in different parts of the country, particularly in the north and south Kivu provinces of the eastern DRC.
Just a few days after the DRC-M23 ceasefire was signed, new reports emerged that the M23 rebels had seized a new ground.
As part of the expansion, at least 19 civilians were killed by M23 fighters, particularly around the village of Bukera.
This latest escalation is a clear violation of the Doha Certain Warning Agreement on all aspects of the conflict, in order to halt efforts to expand the interests of the territorial, amid a variety of other provisions.
A ceasefire with an ambiguous message
Human rights activist Philemon Luzinge believes that despite the concessions Kinshasa can make to maintain peace, Doha's deal will ultimately have little impact.
“The Principles Agreement… should be very important towards a lasting peace agreement,” he told DW, adding that the ongoing actions of the M23 rebels leave little hope for it to work in the long run.
The M23 rebels defend the forces surrendering Congolese forces recruited to rebel groups in Bukabu, DRC.
Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty Images
According to Ruzinge, M23 leaders can continue to enjoy free governance over the Northeast DRC due to the text of the contract “including withdrawal clauses” and feel that they are deliberately expressed in a vague way.
This view was further cemented by the M23 itself. The M23 itself was the leader of the signature delegation in Doha, Benjamin Mboninpa, repeatedly stated that the group “will not retreat, not a meter.”
“We'll stay where we are,” Mboninpa said.
Rebels seeking to harness political control
Researcher Berkmoes believes that Mbonimpa's attitude indicates the position of the entire M23.
“I don't think M23s will stand by themselves. Rather, I hope they are looking for ways to make important statements as part of the government.”
Dispute analyst Miviri points out, “M23 says they haven't left,” and agrees.
She added that this should be taken at face value.
The M23 does whatever it pleases.
Reagan Mibiri
That view is also shared by the people of North Kivu.
There has been an increasing number of complaints by civil society groups about the lack of government intervention.
Justin Murtzi, a democratic activist in Goma, the capital of the state, told DW: “The state has a safety committee on its population. But if there is such a killing and there is no word from the state, it indicates that there is a serious institutional void.”
“The signing of the declaration of principles gives us a bit of hope,” said Julian, a city resident who believes M23 will continue to control much of the region, as it clearly shows that the government has accepted the demands and conditions of the rebels.
Scepticism seems to exceed hope
Kinshasa political scientist Christian Moreka wonders whether conflicts are concerned about peace.
“Do various political parties even have a will to achieve lasting peace?” he told DW.
“Will the follow-up mechanism work better than in the past to support the full implementation of these various clauses?”
Berkmoes has a similar reservation, emphasizing that “there was a series of agreements in the past, but that has not been supported.”
M23 Rebels on a Jeep Drive passing through city streets in Bukabu, DRC in February.
Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty Images
She added that various political parties and factions should be included in all negotiations for a sustainable peace plan to succeed — not just M23, but “all 160 groups” are fighting for control.
That's why Berckmoes believes that “there's still a long way to go.”
Mibili took an even more calm attitude. “Before we talk about a permanent peace agreement, it must just happen first. And I still haven't happened.”
Amid the surge in skepticism, criticism and violence since Doha's signature, there have been some hopeful voices in Massad Boulos, senior US advisor to Africa.
According to Congo's Home Minister Jack Maine Shabani, great progress has been made in recent weeks.
He said he is confident that despite the ongoing unstable nature of the conflict, “we are close to peace.”
However, in the same statement, he emphasized that “peace is the choice” and “work is necessary.”
This article was originally published on DW.com.
