The United States, the United Nations and the African Union (AU) were among the first to welcome the July 19 ceasefire between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 rebels defended by the US and Qatar.
The Doha Declaration, built on the peace agreement signed by Congo and Rwanda in Washington on June 27th, and the peace agreement signed by Congo and Rwanda in Washington, is intended to serve as another “meaning step towards furthering lasting peace and stability in the Great Lakes region.”
Although Kigali continues to deny support for the M23, Rwanda's willingness to sign and its passive observation Doha agreement was seen as an implicit acknowledgment of its role in the conflict over the years.
Is DRC a no-go zone?
A day after its signature in Doha, the US updated its security advisory for the Congo, particularly the capital, advised the country's US citizens to “raising awareness, avoiding large gatherings, and monitoring local news and security updates.”
The list of recommended actions includes providing “sufficient food and water to have to stay home for a few days” and “having important items (clothes, medicines, travel documents) packed in a bag you can carry.”
This consultation is similar to the advice that we, the authorities, issue residents to prepare for major natural disasters.
Reagan Miviri, a conflict analyst and lawyer working with the Congo Research Group at Kinshasa, an independent, nonprofit research project, understands the importance of the US Department of State's latest travel recommendations.
“The crisis in the eastern Congo is visible in Kinshasa in some respects,” she told DW. “The US actors (who) are worried about what will happen in Kinshasa… they probably know a lot more than we do, so they probably have other information we don't have.”
Many parts of Congo are still under the control of the M23, according to Lidewyde Berckmoes, an associate professor and senior researcher at Leiden, the Dutch Center for African Studies.
“The area has seen many violent rebel movements that have been there since the 1990s. There is a lot of tension and there are many places where authority is being contested,” Burkmoes, who focuses on Africa's Great Lakes region, told DW.
The M23 extension course continues
On the ground, the reality of the war continues to effectively determine daily life in different parts of the country, particularly in the north and south Kivu provinces of eastern Congo. Just a few days after the DRC-M23 ceasefire was signed, new reports emerged that the M23 rebels had seized a new ground.
According to Congo's unsupported radio Okapi, at least 19 civilians were killed by M23 fighters, particularly around the village of Bukera.
This latest escalation is a clear violation of the Doha Certain Warning Agreement on all aspects of the conflict, in order to halt efforts to expand the interests of the territorial, amid a variety of other provisions.
A ceasefire with an ambiguous message
Human rights activist Philemon Luzinge believes that despite the concessions Kinshasa can make to maintain peace, Doha's deal will ultimately have little impact.
“The agreement on principles should be very important towards a lasting peace agreement,” he told DW, adding that the ongoing actions of the M23 rebels have left little hope for it to work in the long run.
According to Ruzinge, the M23 leaders can continue to enjoy the free governance of the northeastern Congo due to the text of the contract “including withdrawal clauses” and feel that they are deliberately expressed in an ambiguous way.
This view was further cemented by the M23 itself. The M23 itself was the leader of the signature delegation in Doha, Benjamin Mboninpa, repeatedly saying that the group “will not retreat, not a meter.”
“We'll stay where we are,” Mboninpa said.
Rebels seeking to harness political control
Researcher Berkmoes believes that Mbonimpa's attitude indicates the position of the entire M23. “I don't think M23 will allow themselves to stand by. Rather, they hope that they are looking for ways to make important statements as part of the government. ”
Dispute analyst Miviri points out, “M23 says they haven't left,” and agrees. She added that this should be taken at face value. “The M23 does whatever it pleases.”
That view is also shared by the people of North Kivu. There has been an increasing number of complaints by civil society groups about the lack of government intervention. Justin Murtzi, a democratic activist in Goma, the capital of the state, told DW:
“The signing of the declaration of principles gives us a bit of hope,” said Julian, a city resident who believes M23 will continue to control much of the region, as it clearly shows the government has accepted the demands and conditions of the rebels.
Scepticism seems to exceed hope
Kinshasa political scientist Christian Moreka wonders whether conflicts are concerned about peace. “Do various political parties even have a will to achieve lasting peace?” he told DW. “Do follow-up mechanisms actually work better than in the past to support the full implementation of these various regulations?”
Berkmoes has a similar reservation, emphasizing that “there was a series of agreements in the past, but it was not supported.” She added that for a sustainable peace plan to succeed, not just the M23, but “all 160 groups” must be included in all negotiations that “all 160 groups” fight for control. That's why Berckmoes believes that “there's still a long way to go.”
Mibili took an even more calm attitude. “Before we talk about a lasting peace agreement, it must happen first, and I still haven't happened.”
Amid the surge in skepticism, criticism and violence since Doha's signature, there have been some hopeful voices within Massad Boulos, senior US adviser to Africa.
According to Congo's Home Minister Jack Maine Shabani, great progress has been made in recent weeks. He said he is confident that despite the ongoing unstable nature of the conflict, “we are close to peace.” However, in the same statement, he emphasized that “peace is a choice” and “necessary for work.”
Editor: Benita Van Eyessen
Corrected, July 24, 2025: Previous versions of this article have misnamed Massad Boulos. DW apologises for the error.
