Do planes crash more frequently?

After a series of prominent disasters, some social media users have suggested that air travel accidents are becoming more frequent.

Hair-up closeness videos began to trend online, with US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy trying to calm the fear in an interview with CBS News, the BBC's US partner. He told viewers that the recent US air disaster moments were “very unique.”

Duffy's intervention came after several serious incidents, including an airborne collision between a commercial airliner and a military helicopter in January.

Footage of the plane tipping over after landing in Toronto, Canada, has also been widely shared online, providing more fuel.

And while votes on this subject are limited, a recent Associated Press survey suggests that images of these surprising accidents have had some impact on US consumer confidence in flight. Ta.

However, BBC Verify analyzes data in the US and around the world and has discovered that there has been a common downward trend in aviation accidents over the past 20 years.

In the US, until the end of January this year, figures relating to air force accidents were compiled by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).

This NTSB data shows a decline in common aviation accidents in the United States from 2005 to 2024 despite a significant increase in the total number of flights over this period. Also, the figures for January 2025 (52) were lower than last January (58) and January 2023 (70).

Data from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations organisation that monitors global aviation accidents, shows that between 2005 and 2023, the number of global accidents per million plane departures was clearly decreasing. It shows that we saw trends.

The definition of ICAO for aircraft accidents is very broad, including not only serious injuries or deaths of passengers and crew members, but also cases where the aircraft is damaged and needs repair or disappearance.

Data on the number of deaths in air accidents around the world also shows that they also declined over the same period, despite spikes reflecting major air hazards.

In 2014, two such events contributed to the important spike.

In March, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 traveled from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, with 239 people on board. In July, another Malaysia Airlines plane, the MH17, was shot down by a Russian-made missile in eastern Ukraine, killing almost 300 people.

Such a dataset tends to see sudden and large fluctuations in Professor David Spiergelhalter, professor emeritus of statistics at Cambridge University.

“Counting the number of deaths rather than accidents is bound to be extremely unstable and sensitive to a single, large-scale accident,” he said.

“Random events don't occur evenly – they tend to cluster, so unfortunately, we can expect that even if the aircraft accident is not connected, they will still appear to be connected.”

Regarding a series of famous accidents over the past few months, Ismo Aaltonen, formerly the Finnish chief disaster investigator, told the BBC it was not a sign of a decline in aircraft safety.

“It's very unlucky that there was this period of different types of accidents, but people should not draw conclusions based on this because it's such a different case,” he said.

He said several incidents have been unexpected over the past few months, citing an Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan in December after being targeted by Russian anti-aircraft missiles. .

Marco Chan, a former pilot and senior lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, told the BBC that increased awareness of air disasters has been fuelled further as “accidents are increasing exposure from social media platforms.” He said he confirmed that he was there.

One video circulating through Tiktok, drawn from the Superman film, shows the heroes who prevent the jet from crashing into the stadium. The clip comes with the caption “Buttigieg every day for the past four years, judging from current events.” The viral clip suggests that aviation disasters have grown since the former US Transportation Secretary resigned in January.

A series of recent incidents involving the Boeing 737's biggest aircraft have been gaining great attention in the media and social media, particularly after the door exploded during flight in January 2024.

Concerns over that and several other incidents have led some customers to boycott planes manufactured by Boeing, and see the company's stock collapse.

Experts told the BBC they confirmed that these incidents, such as major collisions, have been thoroughly investigated by authorities. New details and data from the accident will be fed to the pilot training simulator so that they can prepare for similar scenarios in the future.

“If you look at today's simulators, how far they're going, they're like real aircraft,” says Ismo Aaltonen. “It's completely different from when I first started flying over 40 years ago.”

Regulators can also impose penalties for safety violations, including fines, licence suspensions and operational restrictions. Airlines may be banned by the country or bloc if they do not comply with safety standards.

Despite recent incidents, air travel remains the safest form of travel.

According to the latest figures from the U.S. Department of Transportation, more than 95% of all transportation-related deaths in the United States in 2022 occurred on roads. Less than 1% were related to air travel.

And looking at the numbers in terms of deaths per distance travelled, the comparative safety of air travel is even more clear.

In 2022, there were just 0.001 passenger deaths per 100,000,000 miles for the airline, compared to 0.54 miles for the passenger car, according to the latest figures from the National Safety Council, a US-based nonprofit.

“Be careful about how you travel to the airport,” Aaltonen said. “This is the most dangerous part of travel compared to actual flights.”