The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) lost three founding members on January 29, 2025. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger accounted for 424 million people in the bloc and 16% of the 7% of its economy.
Some commentators labeled the departure, which was first announced a year ago, as “Sahelexit.” The decision to leave ECOWAS was made by military leaders from three countries and is now ready to be legally effective. The three countries created an alliance of Sahel States (Alliance desétatsdu Sahel, AES), a mutual defense and security agreement formalized through the Liptako Gourma Charter in 2023.
The decision to leave ECOWAS prompted after launching a coup against democratically elected leaders in Mali in 2021, Berkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. It was done. Ecowas Democracy and Governance Protocols prohibit unconstitutional changes in government. Therefore, local institutions imposed economic, financial and travel sanctions on countries after each coup.
Food was exempt from sanctions. However, the resulting increase in transport times and other logistical hurdles contributed to a significant level of inflation in the region's food prices. In Niger, for example, the average market price for rice rose 38% during July 2023 when sanctions were first imposed, and was lifted in February 2024.
The remaining ECOWAS countries were also severely affected. Benin's revenues at Kotonou Port, the main source of transportation for goods entering Niger, have dropped dramatically. Sanctions over Mali have seriously damaged revenue generation at nearby Senegal's Dakar port.
All sanctions were lifted in February 2024. However, the damage was done and the three states began preparing to deviate from the region.
ECOWAS has given these three states a transition period until July 2025 in case they come backtracking. However, the Sahel alliance states that their decisions are irreversible.
The withdrawal from Africa's largest political and economic coalition threatens to disrupt the flow of goods, services and people. As a political economist focused on agriculture and nutrition policy in most Africa, I have been struggling with food security in areas where around 17 million children under the age of five are already acutely malnourished. I'm worried about bringing results.
Already, the cost of daily nutritious meals in the three Sahel Alliance countries is 110% higher than the daily minimum wage in the West African region. The country is also one of the world's hunger hot spots. In early 2025, a population of 7.5 million was classified as a crisis, emergency or hunger situation.
The exit also puts local cooperation in conflict at risk. The rebel attacks are moving further south of the Sahel.
This reduces access to safe and affordable foods and prevents investment in agricultural processing.
A blow to trade
The meaning of an exit is most obvious for trade relations. The three countries remain in the West African Economic and Monetary Union with eight members, but are departing from the ECOWAS Customs Union, which includes the regional British People's Countries. The Customs Union removes tariffs between member states and establishes common external tariffs for non-member states. Members are freely experiencing each other's trade, protecting domestic industries from external competition. Since 2015, import duties within Ecowas have been excluded. General external tariffs are imposed on imports from non-ecowas countries.
Leaving ECOWAS means that the three countries must comply with the general external tariff rates for imports to ECOWAS Member States. They also return to the use of the most preferred national rates of the World Trade Organization on imports from ECOWAS countries.
In other words, for some goods, including agricultural products, imports are more expensive in all countries. The three states are further hurt by community collection, with a 0.5% tax ECOWAS funding the BLOC budget for goods from non-Ecowas countries.
All three countries are inland. Leave Ecowas means losing access to ports like Tema in Ghana and Lagos in Nigeria. Some of their biggest exports have an impact. For example, almost 60% of Burkina Faso's vegetable exports and 90% of live animals go to Ghana and Ivory Coast.
Ghana, along with Ivory Coast and Benin, is an important export market for Niger's onions. Niger also imports most of its food from Nigeria, one of the region's largest trading partners.
Therefore, tariffs and taxation could increase the cost of food for consumers, both in the Sahel alliance and the remaining ECOWAS countries.
The withdrawal of the three countries will also affect food production due to reduced access to electricity, a decrease in flour and cooking oil. The trio could be excluded from the ECOWAS West Africa power pool, which aims to increase member access to the local electricity market. Burkina Faso and Niger import most of their electricity from Ivory Coast and Nigeria.
Finally, the livelihoods of Sahel migrants living in the Ekowas countries remain uncertain. ECOWAS's Freedom Mobility Protocol provides over 1.3 million Burkinas and half a million Malis living in Ivory Coast. Many of them run small, informal sector businesses, supporting their families in their homelands.
Future scenarios
Ecowas is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025. What will the future look like?
Regime leaders have proposed various ways in which the relationship between the Sahel alliance and Ekowas progresses. For example, they claim to maintain visa-free travel from Ecowas countries. However, all the remaining 12 ECOWAS states must approve the proposal. The Alliance has launched its own passport, but it is not clear how Ecowas will treat citizens who use it.
Another possible scenario would be for them to negotiate bilateral agreements with major ECOWAS trading partners and other countries that provide ocean access, such as Mauritania and Morocco. This scenario clearly undermines efforts to strengthen regional trade integration.
Finally, the issues surrounding “sahelexit” embody the greater tension. These include whether political objectives should be incorporated into trade arrangements (whether the centre of Africa's growth and opportunity law renewal will also be discussed in the context of concerns over national sovereignty, including cross-border climate; This includes undermining conflicts and regional cooperation on increasing conflicts. Health threats to food security.
