The African aviation sector remains lurking despite its great potential. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the continent accounts for 18% of the world's population, thus contributing less than 3% of the global GDP and only 2% of global air traffic. Embraer's latest market report, Connecting Africa, offers an attractive blueprint to unlock this potential by increasing connectivity within the region. Building on decades of traffic data and expert insights, the report highlights the untapped routes, the power of hub strategies, and the key role of right-sized aircraft in fostering sustainable growth. With Africa's aviation at a crossroads, Embler's findings provide a roadmap for a more integrated and prosperous continent.
Connection challenge
Air connections within limited regions of Africa are an important barrier to economic development. Surprisingly, up to 22% of African travelers traveling between two African cities must pass through African hubs such as Europe and the Middle East. This inefficiency stems from fragmented markets, restrictive bilateral agreements, and inadequate direct routes. Despite the size of the continent (three times the size of Europe), its air transport activities are behind Europe's delays despite its population of 2.5 times.
Embraer's report highlights economic interests. Improved connectivity could boost trade, tourism and cultural exchange and work with initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA). The single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), launched in 2018, aims to liberalize the skies, but progress remains uneven. However, Embraer's analysis shifts focus from challenges to opportunity, celebrates Africa's aviation outcomes and identifies viable steps.
Undeveloped route: Catalysts for growth
The core component of the report is identifying high potential in Africa routes that currently lack direct flights. Using Saber Market Intelligence data from 2014 to 2024, Embraer analyzed traffic patterns to estimate the stimulus effects of new direct routes monitored daily (PDEW). The top two routes illustrate undeveloped demand.
Abidjan (ABJ) – Douala (DLA), 1,519 km: This route links West and Central Africans serves more than 10 million urban residents in Ivory Coast and Cameroon. Strong trade in cocoa, palm oil and industrial products promote business travel, and cultural connections and regional festivals fuel and burn demand for visiting friends and relatives (VFRs). Currently, passengers often pass through Lome (LFW) or Abuja, but direct flights can significantly stimulate traffic.
Lusaka (LUN) – Cape Town (CPT), 2,295 km: Zambia and South Africa link, this South African route uses mining and agricultural trade. Cape Town's status as a tourism magnet complements Lusaka's growing urban population over 3 million. Bilateral agreements between the two countries support feasibility, making this a promising market for direct services.
These routes highlight, among other things, the possibilities of non-stop flights to increase convenience, reduce travel time and stimulate demand. Embraer's data-driven approach provides airlines with concrete opportunities to make their networks profitable.
The power of hubs and frequencies
Efficient hub operations are the centre for improving connectivity. The report details how African hubs such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Johannesburg can utilize their geographical locations in their regions. For example, East African hubs are excellent at linking Africa to Asia, while North African hubs connect to Europe and North America. Hub airlines typically have at least 30% of passengers connected, with synchronized arrival and departure waves (banks) maximize the itinerary.
Embraer emphasizes the importance of multiple banks (actually 2-3 days) to reduce connection times and increase competitiveness in the global distribution system. A typical setup includes morning banks for long distance arrivals and local departures, and evening banks for local arrivals and long distance departures. Adding afternoon banks will further optimize aircraft usage and passenger convenience.
African hub carriers like Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airlines have made great strides in building robust networks. Bole International Airport in Ethiopia exemplifies this success, with over 45,000 weekly seats. Embraer's report suggests that further investments in hub infrastructure and scheduling can amplify these returns and support both intra-Africa and intercontinental connections.
Right-sized aircraft: the key to profitability
The outstanding insights from the report are a key role in aircraft selection in unlocking connectivity. Demand may be uncertain, but operating costs are not. Embraer supports right-sized aircraft to ensure risky aircraft, particularly the E-Jets family, to ensure risky operation and profitability. The E175+ (76 seats), E190-E2 (96 seats), and E195-E2 (120 seats) are tailored to the fragmented, low-density market in Africa.
The E2 family has lower travel costs compared to the larger narrower bodies, which means they need to sell fewer seats for sale. With a range of up to 6 hours, these jets offer flexibility for both short and medium routes. Optimized wings, fly-by-wire technology, and improved aerodynamics provide best-in-class economics and have the same per seat cost as a large aircraft, but the risk has been significantly reduced.
Former airline executive Sean Mendis encapsulates this strategy. “You can fly a small plane twice, but you can't fly just half of the larger plane.” Behramjee, senior manager at Fleet & Network Planning, adds that the E195-E2 range and fuel efficiency are ideal for both hub and point-to-point operations. By deploying right-sized aircraft, airlines can expand to sustainably underserved markets and drive long-term growth.
Celebrating African Aviation Achievements
Embraer's report celebrates the advances in aviation in Africa and takes on a refreshing, positive tone. African Airlines employs cutting-edge technology, in contrast to the older aircraft common in Europe and North America, and operates some of the world's youngest fleets. The continent has progressed towards International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards, significantly improving safety. Major airlines have built world-class hubs, improved accessibility and deployed Africa as a global aviation player.
These achievements provide a strong foundation for future growth. The report predicts an annual increase of 8.1% in African traffic through 2030, along with economic growth and increased demand. By focusing on new routes, hub optimization and efficient aircraft, Africa can close connectivity gaps and realize aviation possibilities.
