Airbus has raised its new aircraft delivery outlook to 43,420 over the next 20 years, up about 1,000 from last year's forecast.
Of this total, about 34,250 people are typically single aisle aircraft, covering both passenger and cargo ship models. Another 9,170 is usually a wide body, of which 970 newly built cargo ships.
Air Flamer's latest global market forecast covering the period until 2044 expects a total delivery of 18,930 to replace retired types.
They will raise the global in-service fleet to 49,210 in 2044, doubling the current level.
During a forecast briefing in Toulouse on June 10, Airbus' commercial aircraft Antonio Da Costa head of market analysis said that around 40% of single-aisle demand for the next 20 years has already been covered by a backlog of nearly 14,200 aircraft.
This will leave demand for around 20,000 single-aisle aircraft, along with around 5,600 wide bodies, over the next 20 years.
Da Costa says there is much stability in the current market outlook compared to last year's forecast following the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The April 2025 figures show passenger traffic in all global regions above pre-pandemic levels before April 2019, he says.
Despite current economic uncertainty, Airbus expects a 3.6% growth in global annual passenger traffic, based on a 2.5% increase in GDP.
He highlights the growth rate and network density, particularly in emerging economies in Asia.
India's internal route network has tripled over the past decade, saying it has the highest domestic transport growth rate at 8.9%. Vietnam's traffic has increased more than seven times over the past 20 years.
China's domestic traffic volume is increasing by around 5.4% per year, but in 2044 it will be the largest overall traffic flow, surpassing the more mature US market, where growth is limited to 1.6%.
Da Costa highlights a “continuous market shift” to Asia, with around 45% of all delivery (approximately 19,600 aircraft) going to China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region.
He says Asia, the Middle East and Africa will account for about 60% of commercial aircraft capacity in 2044.
Airbus aims to provide detailed, individual demand forecasts for freighter ships in October.
Da Costa says that despite Airbus's reduction in global trade growth outlook from 3.1% last year to 2.6% this year, air freight is focusing on “high-value goods” and expects the sector to “continue to grow at a healthy pace.”
