Catholicism did not begin as a “white” faith. Born on the eastern edge of the Mediterranean, it spread Africa, Asia and what we now call Europe through the trade routes and legions of the Roman Empire.
Three early Roman bishops: Victor I (c. 189–199), Miltiades (311–314), and Zerasius I (492–496) were Africans who taught doctrines during the development of the church.
They are respected as saints. This reminds us that the Pope’s office has never been racially defined.
But that history is unsettling about the unbreakable running of Europeans, which stretches from the early Middle Ages to Francis’ death last month. Argentina’s Francis was the first pope of Latin America, but he was the son of an Italian immigrant family.
Why, with 1.4 billion faithful global communion, the modern Conclave does not look beyond Europeans for the new Pope? And what needs to change to do that?
Francisco Seco/AP
The change is slow
The explanations are less colourful than logistics and culture.
Europe has been a Catholic political and demographic centre for centuries. Until the 19th century, travel to Rome across Europe was prolonged, dangerous and expensive. Electors who missed the start of the Conclave were simply ruled out.
Pope’s politics were therefore severely intertwined with Italian urbanisms, and since 1870 he was caught up in the diplomatic competition of European powers.
Even after steamships and railroads made travel easier, years of practice and sponsorship ensured that most future cardinals were trained at Roman universities, served in the Curia (Vatican bureaucracy), and moved within the Euro-centric friendship network. Cardinal of College has become overwhelmingly Europe in its composition and culture.
The 20th century Pope began to abandon this European rule in the internal governance of the church.
Pius X abolished the secular veto in 1903 (used by Catholic monarchs on the candidates of the Pope) Pius XI named the electors of Paul Vim Limited Papal in 1946 the first modern Chinese cardinal to those under the age of 80, and began appointing more non-European bishops.
John Paul II and Benedict XVI continued this trend, emphasizing that Francis would elevate pastors from diverse places, such as Tonga, Lesotho and Myanmar.
Dita Alankara/Pool AP
Europe still claims the only bloc of the largest votes in the Conclave, but its basic expression has dipped from 70% in 1963 to 39% in 2025. The number of representatives in Africa and Asia is steadily increasing.
Of the 135 electors eligible to enter the Sistine Chapel to vote for the new Pope on May 7th, 53 are Europeans. Africa has 18 electorals, Asia 23, Latin America 21, North America 16, and Oceania 4. (However, two are sick and will not attend, one from Europe and the other from Africa).
This expression is disproportionately European, reflecting the gradual nature of the changes in the structure of the church.
Shift demographics
Meanwhile, the demographics of the Catholic Church are changing rapidly.
Between 1980 and 2023, the Catholic population in Europe fell from 286 million to less than 250 million. Weekly public attendance fell even more rapidly.
During the same period, the number of Catholics in Africa almost tripled. Asia rose to about 160 million. And Latin America, although not expanding anymore, remains homes in about 40% of the 425 million Catholics.
The profession follows the same curve. While French and German seminaries are closed due to a shortage of students, Nigeria, India and the Philippines send priests abroad to facilitate the shortage in Europe.
Africa and Asia also significantly increased cardinal representation at the highest level of the church, from less than 10% in 1963 to over 30% in 2025.
Ultimately, these figures expand even further, catching up to the African, Asian and Latin American baptism registers.
The most important things during a conclave
Observers often speculate about the “global South Bloc” ready to describe the Pope’s candidates as “progressive” or “conservative” or raid the Pope’s throne. Such languages blur the actual considerations of electors when voting for a vote.
Five practical questions tend to be important:
1. Are the candidates known, trusted, and people of faith and wisdom?
Personal acquaintances are still important. The Cardinals who worked in Rome are well placed, as most electors have met them repeatedly.
2. Can he rule Curia?
Leading the world’s oldest bureaucracy requires Italian stamina, political tact, leadership insight, relational skills and flow ency, the everyday language of the Vatican regime.
There is also the ongoing issue of reform, particularly on the Church’s sexual abuse crisis and economic issues.
3. Will he be asked beyond Rome?
The Pope must travel, deal with Congress and hold press conferences. Because communication and symbolism are important, the orders of English and comfort in front of global media are extremely important.
4. Is he a pastor?
The ability to persuade the gospel, comfort the suffered, and speak credibly about the poor has been essential since John Paul II.
5. Does he live with knowing the traditions of the church?
As part of this, the Pope should be able to express and deepen the teachings of the Church.
Alessandra Tarantino/AP
Non-European Pope Candidate
These standards help explain why previous European hopes were inadequate.
For example, in 1978, the Brazilian Aloísio Lorscheider cardinal was judged to be too young and untested.
Andrew Medicini/AP
In 2005, Nigeria’s Cardinal Francis Arinze was considered a transition figure at age 72, despite praise. He had no experience with Curia either.
In 2013, Brazilian Cardinal Odyrocheller was persuasive in his idyllic questions, but was hampered by his limited English and Italian language, and concerns made the Vatican Bank need a strong financial reformer.
Can you change this year? The current Conclave has several non-European candidates.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Former archbishop of Manila, he is a talented communicator in Italian and English. While some voters may be afraid that he is incompetent and is too closely identified with Francis, others see the continuity as an advantage.
Friedlyn Ambongo Beschung (D-Republic of the Congo): A leading African voice on ecology and conflict mediation, he is praised for his courage and leadership in the Congo, where the conflict was derived. Skeptics refer to his limited network outside of Africa and France. He may also be too conservative for some Cardinals.
Peter Turkson (Ghana): Longtime Attorney General and a clear champion of economic justice. The age counts against him (he is 76 years old), but he could appear as a compromise if Conclave stalled, as he saw as doctrinally solid, open and charismatic.
L’Osservatore Romano/ap
Either of them will break post-secular patterns. But he will not campaign (or should) as the flag bearer of his continent.
The Church does not anoint the Pope to maintain scorecards by the hemisphere or satisfy the civic concept of representation.
Most importantly, whether candidates can advance the mission of the Church and speak in an effective way in an era marked by war, the climate crisis and rapid secularization.
Will a pope outside of Europe be affected by an earthquake?
Symbolically, yes.
The Filipino or Congolese Pope shows that the Catholic demographic mind beating in Manila and Kinshasa, not in Milan and Cologne.
But in reality, the changes may not be that dramatic.
Anyone who is elected will inherit the same three tasks.
To preach with convincing in an age of skepticism, to serve the poor, to lead a very diverse institution, to protect the unity of the church while it is a place for marginalized people to preach to reform the Curia, rather than suppressing evangelization.
These challenges go beyond the realm and skin tones.
If the next Pope happens to be African, Asian, or Latin American, history changes pages. The universal body will be equally confident and aware of the gift of a shepherd who can speak to his followers in Kinshasa, Manila, Sao Paulo and Munich, in the face of its evolving demographics.
The mystery behind Conclave is that when the door closes, regional and political calculations fade. What remains is the prayer identification of who can bring St. Peter’s keys into an uncertain future.
