Doha – Morocco’s bold experiment on aviation liberalization demonstrates how protectionist policies and strategic reforms across Africa, where high costs have long hampered connectivity.
Marie Noel Nuukoro, an associate researcher at the Brenthurst Foundation, said in a new analysis that Morocco was the first African country to sign an Open Skies agreement with the European Union in 2006, effectively opening up the aviation market to competition from Europe.
“Sceptics feared that the onslaught of low-cost airlines in Europe would kill the national airline Royal Air Malloc (RAM), which wasn’t,” Nuukoro wrote in her report, “Shoaks above the air blues: How reforms change air travel across Africa.”
The results proved to be transformative for Morocco’s economy and travel sector. Passenger volume between Morocco and Europe increased by about 18% per year in the four years after the transaction, creating an additional 1 billion euros in Morocco’s GDP by 2009, creating an estimated 24,000 jobs.
Researchers observed that tourist arrivals were steadily climbing at around 6% per year, but average fares fell by about 7%, providing direct consumer benefits. Most importantly, despite its forecasts for the end of the mise, Royal Airmallock has adapted to the new competitive landscape.
“Royal Air Mallok has its own adaptation and holds it. It currently remains the biggest player in the market despite competing with European airlines (including Ryanair and EasyJet) that frequently operate daily flights to Morocco,” Nucolo explained.
The agreement also sparked domestic aviation innovation. The Air Arabia Maroc was launched in 2009 and has leveraged the growing budget travel segment to further expand its options for travelers.
Challenges in success
Despite the overall success, the Moroccan experience also highlights important implementation challenges. Nwokolo cited Ram CEO Abdelhamid Addou’s November 2024 comment, describing the notable imbalance in the practical application of contracts.
“European Airlines gained free access to Morocco and African markets, but when Morocco’s Royal Airmallock tried to expand into Europe, “open sky and closed airports” became a reality,” Nuukoro pointed out, citing Adou.
According to Addou, securing landing slots at major European airports remained a sustained struggle, creating asymmetry in market access that poses a serious obstacle to Moroccan careers.
The study showed that liberalization requires ongoing management rather than one-off policy decisions. As market conditions evolved, Moroccan and EU officials had to navigate ongoing negotiations on a variety of issues, from security standards to airport slot allocation.
“Essentially, Morocco has learned that opening the sky is a constant journey of adjustment,” Nuukoro said in her analysis. “Even so, the comprehensive lesson is clear: it could be ready for thoughtful liberalization and competition.
Unexplored opportunities
This report contrasts with Moroccan approaches with broad protectionism across Africa. Despite housing 18% of the world’s population, Africa accounts for just 2% of the world’s air passenger traffic. This is a nuwokoro, which is said to be “not inevitable, but self-imposed.”
Continental efforts such as the 1999 Yamoussoukro decision launched in 2018 and the African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) face implementation hurdles and limit potential economic benefits.
Nwokolo presented data showing untapped opportunities with widespread implications for Africa. A 2022 African Union survey predicts that the full implementation of SAATM will increase Africa’s GDP by $4.2 billion, create roughly 600,000 new jobs, and reduce average airfares by 27%.
The analysis pointed to real-world verifications already seen in limited cases. Passenger traffic surged 69% when Kenya and South Africa liberalised flights between them in the early 2000s. Similarly, when South Africa allowed low-cost carriers to the South African Zambian market, fares fell and traffic increased by 38%.
“The vision of connected Africa is within reach, where Accra entrepreneurs can easily fly around flights to meet Lusaka clients, or Dakar families can take affordable vacations in Cape Town,” concluded Nuukoro. She added that achieving this vision would require “bold leadership, merciless technical work, and yes, tough negotiations to adjust profits.”
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