Africa is no longer a surrounding setting. It is becoming a central platform for Moscow's global strategy.
The Kremlin has stagnated and profited elsewhere as President Donald Trump is seeking a breakthrough with Ukrainian Putin. While Washington remains absorbed in Eastern Europe, Moscow is expanding its African range and steadily pushing its Atlantic coast. Working under the radar, Russia has built military pre-post bases, secured defence agreements, and has shifted regional balance from the Red Sea to West Africa.
If the Trump administration fails to respond, the Kremlin will lock another strategic footing on the southern side of NATO. And it's not alone. Russia has deepened its coordination between China and Iran, forming a hostile axis aimed at challenging Western domination in multiple theatres, including land, sea, air and radio waves.
Withdrawal from the US from Niger – the expulsion of France from Senegal, Mali and Burkina Faso indicates the collapse of scaffolding in the western Sahel. As the West retreats, Russia is rapidly filling the vacuum, embedded in security structures, expanding its impact across borders. And it's not just political influence. Russia is Africa's top Arms supplier, accounting for 40% of the continent's arms imports.
This is not merely opportunism, it works in Putin's asymmetric war. Armed Junta, supporting coups and exploiting chaos, Moscow is seizing a vacuum of electricity left behind to the west. At a summit held in Sochi last November, Puti vowed that “our country will continue to provide full support to our African friends.”
Moscow's growing influence in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – the newly formed Sahel (AES) alliance is a clear trajectory. Between 2020 and 2023, the military junta of these countries took power through a Russian-backed coup, ending military and diplomatic ties with regional allies, France and the United States. Now they are deepening their security cooperation under Moscow's leadership. Joint forces of 5,000 troops from Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali will be deployed in the Central Sahel to bystanders of Western-backed security structures while strengthening Russia's influence.
But Russia is not only supporting these regimes. It is rewiring Africa's security architecture through the shadow mercenary company Wagner PMC. Wagner, more than paramilitary groups, is a strategic weapon for embedding it into security forces and rebuilding the balance of power in the region. By providing military aid and diplomatic cover, Moscow has in itself become the backbone of their survival, ensuring long-term control over the future of the region.
Moscow is currently extending this strategy beyond the Sahel to the Atlantic coast. In Mauritania, Sergei Lavrov's 2023 visit to Foreign Minister was part of the broader Russian diplomatic push. The Mauritania government has reaffirmed its commitment to international law, but also expressed its “understanding” Russia's security concerns.
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In Equatorial Guinea, Russia has taken a more direct approach. Reports from November 2024 show that Moscow deployed a force of up to 200 to protect President Teodoro Obian Nuguema Mbasogo's administration. This follows a familiar pattern in Russia. It provides government protection in exchange for long-term impacts. Equatorial Guinea, with its oil wealth and strategic locations along the Gulf of Guinea, provides Russia with foothold in areas historically dominated by Western powers.
This shift benefits Russia in three important ways. First, it forces its involvement with Moscow, including Chad, Benin, Ghana and Cote Daiboir (a trusted Western partner). Given that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger form buffer zones alongside Russia and the Russian support forces operate in coastal provinces, regional governments face the decision to realize or endanger security partnerships in Moscow-controlled landscapes.
Second, the AES bypasses both the African Union and ECOWAS, weakening the very institutions that once coordinated local safety. By eroding these frameworks, Moscow ensures that response to instability is shaped under its conditions. Looking at the shift power dynamics, it's no coincidence that Togo is about to join the AES.
Third, this strategy disrupts US- and NATO-backed security operations. Counterterrorist efforts are pushed further south into vulnerable coastal states as western troops are detached from the main Sahel hub. Destruction destroys the shared intelligence and makes Western powers a more reactive attitude. This is a battlefield where Russia thrives, and while Western intervention is slowing, Moscow has established itself as a new security guarantor.
However, Moscow's ambitions in Africa go far beyond the continent. It sees it as a key node in the new global architecture of new impacts. By 2026, Moscow is set to open embassies in the Gambia, Liberia, Comoros, Niger, Sierra Leone, Togo and South Sudan, cementing its influence in areas where Western influence is declining.
This shift strengthens Russia's strategic bloc. Iran secured Nigerian uranium after a Kremlin-backed coup, but China will expand its control as Moscow erodes Western influence. Together, Moscow, Tehran and Beijing are forging axes that directly challenge US interests around the world.
Now, Russia is focusing on the Atlantic Ocean. Although no naval bases on Africa's west coast have been announced, the deepening of the link between Moritania, Mauritania and Equatorial Guinea suggests that it is only a matter of time. What begins today as a logistics hub could become tomorrow's military pre-post base, giving Moscow a strategic foothold to challenge NATO domination and disrupt Western supply lines.
Before Washington can answer, he must recognize the scope of Russia's ambitions. Africa is no longer a surrounding setting. It is becoming a central platform for Moscow's global strategy. Keeping an eye on it, Russia, Iran and China will shape unchallenged terrain. Moscow secures key corridors and develops new security alignments could destroy supply chains in the West, unravel deterrents, and Europe could be exposed themselves. By the time the West reacts, the balance of power may already have changed.
About the author: Zineb Riboua
Zineb Riboua is a researcher and program manager at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. She specializes in China-Russia's involvement in the Middle East, the Sahel and North Africa, large competition in the region, and Israeli-Arab relations. Prior to joining the Hudson Institute, Libua was a research assistant at the Center for Jewish Civilizations at Georgetown University. Libua's work and commentary can be found in the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, National Interest, Jerusalem Post, Tablets, and other outlets. x: Follow her at @zriboua.
Image: Sasa Dzambic Photography/Shutterstock.com.
